Core view: Wait and see the frequent emergence of favorable policies for real estate, and the overall black system has rebounded recently. Fundamentally, last week, the manganese silicon disk surface fell below the cost price of some factories, the China Railway Association called for production cuts, some manufacturers said that there is a production reduction plan, pay attention to the follow-up implementation, the cost side, in June manganese ore merchants quoted high, the renminbi weakened, manganese ore import costs are still high, the cost side support is still strong, if the overall black stabilization, then manganese silicon upward or still have momentum.  

Spot: Neutral futures stopped falling back to stability, steel mills general sentiment, the overall transaction is stable.  

Steel output: More Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with an average daily output of 2.3818 million tons, an increase of 14,400 tons from the previous month; the output of the five major varieties of steel was 10.0872 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons month-on-month, and the overall steel output showed an upward trend.  

Inventory: The neutral latest phase of manganese silicon plant inventory fell by 34,800 tons to 80,500 tons, warehouse receipt inventory fell by 15,000 tons to 134,300 tons, manganese silicon plant inventory and warehouse receipt inventory are in a downward trend.  

Cost profit: more manganese ore running at a high level, some enterprises face losses, there is a possibility of spontaneous production reduction.  

Summary of views: Ferrosilicon  

Core view: Wait and see the frequent emergence of favorable policies for real estate, and the overall black system has rebounded recently. Fundamentally, last week's ferrosilicon production fell slightly, but anywhere in the same period of history at a high level, demand, metal magnesium weekly production slightly upward, export substitution expectations weakened, the overall non-steel demand has declined, the current ferrosilicon enterprise production profits are still high, in the context of steel mill profits squeezed, steel mills have limited acceptance of high prices, need to pay attention to the follow-up steel moves and the degree of recovery of steel demand after the epidemic, if the overall black stabilization, then ferrosilicon upward or still have momentum.  

Spot: Neutral futures stopped falling back to stability, steel mills general sentiment, the overall transaction is stable.  

Steel output: More Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with an average daily output of 2.3818 million tons, an increase of 14,400 tons from the previous month; the output of the five major varieties of steel was 10.0872 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons month-on-month, and the overall steel output showed an upward trend.  

Inventory: Neutral latest phase of manganese ferrosilicon warehouse inventory slightly upward 0.24 million tons to 42,400 tons, with the weakening of the disk surface, delivery warehouse inventory outflow, delivery warehouse inventory fell by 10,500 tons to 52,300 tons, the overall explicit inventory into the downward channel, a total of 94,700 tons.  

Cost profit: Under the background of the common decline in the short period, the profit of ferrosilicon production is still about 1000 yuan / ton, which is at a historically high level.  

Manganese silicon: the cost support is strong, pay attention to the reduction of production  

Manganese ore: Historically low arrival  

Manganese ore arrivals totaled 153,000 wet tons last week, up 53,000 wet tons from the previous month;  

Of these, 153,000 wet tons came from South Africa.  

Source: Reuters, Zijin Tianfeng Futures 

Manganese ore: The delivery is not optimistic 

A total of 92,000 tonnes of manganese ore were sent to China last week, up 46,000 tonnes sequentially; 92,000 tonnes were all from Australia.  

Manganese ore shipments continue to be at a low level, and the shortage of port oxide ore is difficult to solve in the short term.  

Source: Reuters, Zijin Tianfeng Futures 

Manganese ore stocks: slight decline  

The epidemic situation has improved, transportation has resumed, and manganese ore port stocks have continued to decline. Manganese ore port inventories totaled 5.25 million tons last week, down 194,000 tons month-on-month; of which Tianjin Port fell 220,000 tons to 3.965 million tons month-on-month, and Qinzhou Port slightly rose 26,000 tons to 1.135 million tons.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Manganese ore offers are still at a high level 

Manganese ore prices continued to run at a high level, Tianjin Hong Kong and Macao block quotation of 62.1 yuan / ton, a slight decline of 0.1 yuan / ton degree, South Africa semi-carbonate quotation of 39.6 yuan / ton, down 0.6 yuan / ton, the price is still at a high level;  

In June, mine offers fell month-on-month, but prices remained high, with the depreciation of the renminbi and the actual increase in import costs.  

In the context of production in breakeven or loss, manganese silicon enterprises have limited acceptance and light trading.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Weekly production of manganese and silicon: The China Railway Association calls for a reduction in production  

Last week, manganese silicon production continued to rise slightly, up 0.13 million tons to 209,300 tons month-on-month, with a weekly operating rate of 68.81%, up 1.24 percentage points month-on-month.  

In the context of high costs and spot decline, last week, the members of the China Iron and Steel Association reached a production reduction agreement, and the participating companies announced that they would reduce production capacity by 50%, affecting the monthly production capacity of 285,000 tons, and the actual production reduction still needs attention.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Blast furnace operating rate upward  

Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills blast furnace operating rate of 82.61%, up 0.7% month-on-month, down 4.75% year-on-year; the average daily output of molten iron was 2.3818 million tons, up 14,400 tons month-on-month, down 46,900 tons year-on-year.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Manganese silicon consumption: weekly consumption upward  

Blast furnace resumption of production continued to advance, downstream steel weekly production rebounded, mysteel surveyed the five major steel weekly output of 10.0872 million tons, an increase of 47,300 tons week-on-week, of which thread production of 3.1014 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons week-on-week. Demand for manganese silicon from Mysteel sample steel mills increased by 0.58 million tonnes to 150,000 tonnes sequentially.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Manganese silicon price seasonal chart  

As of May 16, the spot price of manganese silicon fell by 30-200 yuan / ton.  

Inner Mongolia region quotation of 8300 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton week-on-week;  

Guangxi region quoted 8300 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton week-on-week.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Manganese silicon production profit  

As of May 16, manganese silicon production profits rose and fell.  

The production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Guangxi were 8300, 8144 and 8700 yuan / ton, respectively;  

The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Guangxi were 50, -250 and -300/ton, respectively.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Basis and warehouse receipt  

The disk surface weakened, the basis rose, and the manganese silicon warehouse receipt and the effective forecast fell sharply from the previous month.  

As of May 16, manganese silicon warehouse receipts and effective forecasts totaled 134,300 tons, down 15,000 tons from the previous month.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Monthly difference  

As of May 16, the difference between manganese silicon in 5-9 months was -50 yuan / ton, the difference between September and January was 104 yuan / ton, and the difference between September and January was stronger.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Ferrosilicon: profit is higher, focus on non-steel demand to cash  

Ferrosilicon perimetal production remained high 

Last week, ferrosilicon production continued to decline slightly, down 0.04 million tons to 127,500 tons month-on-month, with a weekly operating rate of 52.74%, down 0.52 percentage points month-on-month.  

Ferrosilicon profits are dominated by the start of construction, and although the profit has declined slightly, the month-on-month profit is still high, and the overall production of the factory is more active.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Ferrosilicon demand: steel mill consumption  

The average crude steel consumption per ton is 3.5-4kg of ferrosilicon, according to mysteel statistics, the sample steel mills consumed a total of 25,800 tons of ferrosilicon last week, an increase of 0.38 million tons from the previous month.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Ferrosilicon demand: export profit  

Ferrosilicon overseas FOB prices fell slightly, as of May 16, India FOB quotation 2025 US dollars / ton, down 100 US dollars / ton.  

Domestic spot prices fell, ferrosilicon export profits have risen, as of May 16, ferrosilicon export profits of 220 US dollars / ton.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Ferrosilicon demand: magnesium metal  

Last week, the production of magnesium metal did not change much, the start of construction was basically stable, and some enterprises stopped production and overhauled, with a weekly output of about 13,600 tons.  

Last week, the Yulin Municipal Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on lantan production capacity, and part of the output energy of magnesium metal in Fugu County came from the waste heat of ferrosilicon, focusing on the impact of Lantan rectification in Yulin City on the production of magnesium metal.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Ferrosilicon price seasonal chart  

As of May 16, the spot price of ferrosilicon fell by 300-400 yuan / ton.  

Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qingshan and Shaanxi were quoted at 8800 yuan / ton, down 400, 300, 400, 300 yuan / ton week-on-week.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Ferrosilicon production profit  

As of May 16, ferrosilicon production profits fell slightly.  

The production costs in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia and Shaanxi are 7750, 7050, 7400 and 7100 yuan / ton, respectively.  

The production profits of Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia and Shaanxi were 1025, 1745, 1425 and 1705 yuan / ton, respectively.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Basis and warehouse receipt  

The disk surface weakened, the basis rose, and the ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and effective forecasts fell sharply from the previous month.  

As of May 16, ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and effective forecasts totaled 52,300 tons, down 10,500 tons from the previous month.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Monthly difference  

As of May 16, the difference between ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon in May to September was -146 yuan / ton, and the difference between September and January was 80 yuan / ton.  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Ferrosilicon balance sheet  

Source: Steel Union, Zijin Tianfeng Futures  

Manganese-silicon balance sheet